Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Presidential Tracking Polls: Who's Right?
The latest daily tracking polls have been all over the place since the Democratic National Convention. The New York Times/CBS poll had President Obama leading in some key swing states. In Ohio and Florida, Obama is leading Romney 53-43 and 53-44 in Ohio and Florida respectively. Romney simply can't afford to lose Ohio and have any hope of winning the Presidency. Nationally, Obama leads Romney from anywhere from 10 to 2 percent, depending on what poll you tend to believe. That is the rub. Who do you believe? Take for example the New York Times/CBS poll. Does anyone really believe those two are unbiased in their polling when it comes to Republicans? Republicans have reason to take with a large grain of salt anything that comes from the MSM.
The mainstream media is anything but unbiased, contrary to their protestations otherwise. I recognize the party that is losing always questions polling. I accept that. However, there has never been a president in which the MSM has put so much of their time, effort and credibility (what's left of it anyway) into assuring President Obama is reelected. There is real fear how impartial the moderators will be in the presidential debates. This is nothing new for Republicans. The reason they (we) are screaming now is that there is so much fear of an Obama reelection and what that means for this nation. The Obama Zombies don't care what happens to this country as long as they continue to get their "free government handouts." Beating an incumbent president is difficult enough without help from outside influences.
The only thing that gives me hope is Gallup and Rasmussen, particularly the latter of the two. Rasmussen has come within .5% in the last two presidential elections in predicting the outcome. Right now, Rasmussen has Obama leading Romney by 2% and Gallup has Obama by 4%. In fact, every poll has Obama leading. So, it's hard to argue all polls are corrupt. It all boils down to the debates for Romney. It didn't have to be this way. Obama's Achilles heel has been the economy and unemployment above 8%. So, what has Romney being doing? Defending himself over silly attacks on Bain Capital and other attack ads from the Obama campaign. It is a strategy that has worked for Obama. Take the focus off the moribund economy and the 15-20 million unemployed and keep the focus on Romney. It has worked. The electorate has suddenly been struck blind of Obama's faults if we are to believe the polls. I do believe the polls will tighten up as the election draws near, especially if things in the Middle East continue to spiral out of control, a purported coverup in the U.S. Ambassador's death in Libya, etc. Barring that, I see another four years of unemployment above 8%, an economy doing a "Take Two" insofar as a recession and more out of control spending, courtesy of the man who will get to keep his job, President Obama.